Lesson 1: Judgement: when to build, when to refuse
28 min read·
Module 15 · Lesson 1 · About 50 minutes · Needs: Module 3 lesson 3 (costs, the 0.129 threshold, calibration), Module 5 lesson 3 (the grams), Module 8 lesson 3 (cost per 1,000 predictions) and the Kestrel data (course-guide/06).
The situation
Week 15 at Kestrel. The model works, so Morag Sinclair brings three requests. "Warn customers about late parcels, yes. Also forecast when the island ferries will stop. And build a model just for bank holidays: they were a mess in August." Adaeze adds: "Tell Morag what it saves and how sure you are. In pounds."
One parcel runs through the lesson: KP0093042 (simulated), collected at Birmingham on Thursday 27 August 2026, economy service on rural route BHM-R11, 53.8 km, promised for Monday 31 August, the bank holiday. It was late, and nobody was warned.