Lesson 1: What to watch when the model is live
27 min read·
Module 11 · Lesson 1 · About 55 minutes · Needs: Module 3 lesson 3 (PR-AUC, Brier, calibration), Module 9 (the scoring service), Module 3 lesson 2 (isolation forest). The model is trained in one cell here.
The situation
Week 11. Nothing crashed in September, yet the model got worse. Adaeze asks you to replay the month as if monitoring had been running: "When would we have known, and from which signal?" Tomasz admits scanner v4 started sending grams on 7 September.
The running example is Monday 7 September 2026 (simulated), scored by the model that was live then. Doncaster, open since 10 August, and the three island routes, hit by gales on 15 to 17 September, run beside it.